Friday, September 19, 2008

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The following is a synopsis of US economic indicators to be released in the coming week with consensus forecasts provided by Thomson Reuters IFR Markets.

The coming week will be light in economic data, with revised Q2 GDP and existing and new home sales among the most closely watched. Also this week is testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on financial markets, the economic outlook, and Treasury's backing of Government Sponsored Enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

Existing home sales in August are expected to have dipped to 4.920 mln from 5.000 mln in the previous month. Lehman Brothers economists, in their final weekly research note published under the now bankrupt company name, point to mixed but roughly unchanged pending home sales, which lead existing home sales by 1-2 months. 'In our view, the improvement in existing home sales has outpaced this stabilization in pending sales, and we therefore look for a slight retreat this month.' Looking ahead, however, Lehman economists say August will likely mark a bottom for the existing home sales index.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Durable goods orders in August are expected to have dipped by 1.6% following a 1.3% gain in the previous month. Joseph Brusuelas of Merk Investments attributes the expected decline to 'a month of weak orders of civilian aircraft and a moderation in global demand.'

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 0.5% after rising 0.7% in the previous month.

The number of individuals filing first-time claims for unemployment are expected to total 445,000 in the week ending September 20, down from 455,000 in the previous week, when it unexpectedly increased. 'If it were not for the increase in claims in Louisiana due to Hurricane Gustav, the headline would have declined' for that week, Brusuelas said.

The number of individuals continuing to file claims for unemployment in the week ending September 13 is expected to increase to 3.500 mln, from 3.478 mln in the previous month.

New home sales in August are expected to have dipped to 510,000 annual units, from 515,00 annual units in the previous month.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

GDP in the second quarter is expected to remain unrevised at a 3.3% annual rate. The core PCE Price index, a measure of inflation, is also expected to remain unrevised at 1.2% in the second quarter.

The University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence in September is expected to be downwardly revised to 70.5 from the 73.1 level previously reported. 'The decline in the cost of gasoline prices throughout much of the country and the fall in the price of imported oil were the primary catalysts behind the above expectations increase in the preliminary release,' said Joseph Brusuelas of Merk Investments. 'Of interest to the market will be the reaction among consumers to the recent upset in the market in the aftermath of the bankruptcy at Lehman,' which Brusuelas said is bound to deflate consumer sentiment.